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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matt Brown won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1499

Elo1403

Matt BrownvsDhiego LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · Saturday, June 19, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:02

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsDhiego Lima: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Dhiego Lima has lost 57% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

Dhiego Lima

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-186

(65%)

1499

Elo

1403

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Ben Saunders · Dec 19

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Dhiego Lima

oldest →

vs Yushin Okami · Apr 18

KOvs Chad Laprise · Dec 18

vs Court McGee · Apr 19

vs Luke Jumeau · Oct 19

vs Belal Muhammad · Feb 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricDhiego Lima

3.76

Strikes / min

3.12

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

55%

Strike defense

58%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

1.26

63%

Takedown defense

73%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownDhiego Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)Dhiego Lima(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +96.0|Blue -96.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetDhiego Lima

By target zone

44% acc · 44%

Head

21% acc · 35%

65% acc · 41%

Body

100% acc · 17%

80% acc · 15%

Leg

92% acc · 48%

By position

50% acc · 81%

Distance

42% acc · 96%

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

Dhiego Lima rounds

Round 1Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:52Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 49

Sig Strikes

23 / 54

56.5%

Sig Str %

43.5%

30 / 52

Total Strikes

23 / 54

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dhiego Lima	12 / 32	12 / 32	0 / 2
1	Matt Brown	15 / 30	15 / 30	0 / 0
2	Dhiego Lima	11 / 22	11 / 22	0 / 2
2	Matt Brown	12 / 19	15 / 22	0 / 0

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

Dhiego Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11