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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Matt Brown won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1499
Matt Brown
Elo1493
Court McGee

Matt BrownvsCourt McGeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · Saturday, May 13, 2023Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:09

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsCourt McGee: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at +190 American odds

+$190 profit

$290 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown
Red Corner
VS
Court McGee
Blue Corner
+190
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1499
Elo
1493
45
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown
oldest →
W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Dec 19
L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20
L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21
W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21
L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22
latest
Court McGee
oldest →
W
vs Ramiz Brahimaj · Jan 22
L
KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 22
L
vs Alex Morono · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Tim Means · Oct 24
L
vs Michael Chiesa · Jun 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricCourt McGee
3.76
Strikes / min
4.50
2.92
Strikes absorbed / min
3.65
55%
Strike defense
60%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
1.78
63%
Takedown defense
70%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.84evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1510 vs 1491Strikes3.8 vs 4.6Takedowns1.7 vs 1.8Sub Atts1.30 vs 0.40Form-0.4 vs -0.1
Matt BrownCourt McGee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Matt Brown(10 fights)Court McGee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +6.0|Blue -6.0
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetCourt McGee

By target zone

2
50% acc · 18%
Head
2
10% acc · 25%
3
75% acc · 27%
Body
2
40% acc · 25%
6
86% acc · 55%
Leg
4
80% acc · 50%

By position

10
71% acc · 91%
Distance
6
21% acc · 75%
1
100% acc · 9%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 25%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Matt Brown rounds
0
even
0
Court McGee rounds
Round 1Matt Brown edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:57Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
11 / 15
Sig Strikes
8 / 31
73%
Sig Str %
25%
22 / 26
Total Strikes
17 / 48
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
1:57

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Court McGee8 / 3117 / 481 / 10
1Matt Brown11 / 1522 / 260 / 00

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25

Court McGee

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights24