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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matt Brown won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1499

Elo1351

Matt BrownvsChris CopeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · Saturday, February 4, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:19

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsChris Cope: Striker

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Chris Cope wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Cope at +305 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Chris Cope has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Chris Cope has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

Chris Cope

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+305

(25%)

1499

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Chris Cope

oldest →

vs Chuck O'Neil · Jun 11

KOvs Che Mills · Nov 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricChris Cope

3.76

Strikes / min

3.96

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.82

55%

Strike defense

50%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

0.00

63%

Takedown defense

80%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap-0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownChris Cope

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)Chris Cope(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +147.3|Blue -147.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetChris Cope

By target zone

57% acc · 50%

Head

12% acc · 40%

79% acc · 31%

Body

71% acc · 25%

90% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 35%

By position

65% acc · 73%

Distance

21% acc · 80%

69% acc · 19%

Clinch

67% acc · 20%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

Chris Cope rounds

Round 1Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control1:15

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:09Control

Round 2Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 71

Sig Strikes

20 / 82

70%

Sig Str %

26%

48 / 71

Total Strikes

24 / 87

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:20

Ctrl Time

1:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Cope	14 / 62	18 / 67	0 / 0
1	Matt Brown	31 / 49	31 / 49	1 / 3
2	Chris Cope	6 / 20	6 / 20	0 / 0
2	Matt Brown	17 / 22	17 / 22	0 / 0

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

Chris Cope

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3