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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Barberena won · S-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1491

Matt BrownvsBryan BarberenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Saturday, March 26, 2022Columbus, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Barberena won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Bryan Barberena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryan Barberena at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Matt Brown has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

Bryan Barberena

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1499

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt BrownW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ben Saunders · Dec 19

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricBryan Barberena

3.76

Strikes / min

5.35

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

55%

Strike defense

44%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

0.13

63%

Takedown defense

50%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84evenly matched on net striking+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownBryan Barberena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.1|Blue -7.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetBryan Barberena

By target zone

48% acc · 44%

Head

48% acc · 74%

86% acc · 47%

Body

67% acc · 11%

70% acc · 9%

Leg

74% acc · 15%

By position

54% acc · 63%

Distance

48% acc · 70%

86% acc · 30%

Clinch

67% acc · 25%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

Bryan Barberena rounds

Round 1Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:39

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control1:45

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns2

Control1:37

53Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 129

Sig Strikes

111 / 211

62.3%

Sig Str %

52%

95 / 145

Total Strikes

186 / 289

5 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

77.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:01

Ctrl Time

0:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bryan Barberena	23 / 51	62 / 91	0 / 0
1	Matt Brown	23 / 37	25 / 39	1 / 3
2	Bryan Barberena	35 / 60	59 / 85	0 / 0
2	Matt Brown	23 / 36	29 / 43	2 / 2
3	Bryan Barberena	53 / 100	65 / 113	0 / 0
3	Matt Brown	35 / 56	41 / 63	2 / 2

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19