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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Brian Foster won · SUB R2

Elo1499

Elo1490

Matt BrownvsBrian FosterUFC Prediction Result

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · Saturday, November 20, 2010Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Brian Foster won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:11

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsBrian Foster: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Brian Foster wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Brian Foster wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Foster at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Foster threatens submissions; Matt Brown has lost 42% of fights by sub.
Brian Foster has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matt Brown has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Matt Brown has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

Brian Foster

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1499

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Brian Foster

oldest →

KOvs Forrest Petz · Sep 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricBrian Foster

3.76

Strikes / min

3.30

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

1.63

55%

Strike defense

65%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

3.67

63%

Takedown defense

37%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84evenly matched on net striking+1.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownBrian Foster

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)Brian Foster(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.4|Blue -8.4

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +74.0|Blue -74.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetBrian Foster

By target zone

50% acc · 31%

Head

47% acc · 60%

75% acc · 23%

Body

89% acc · 32%

67% acc · 46%

Leg

67% acc · 8%

By position

50% acc · 62%

Distance

55% acc · 44%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 31%

Ground

55% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

Brian Foster rounds

Round 1Brian Foster edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:43

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:00Control

Round 2Brian Foster edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:07

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 21

Sig Strikes

25 / 44

59.5%

Sig Str %

56.5%

23 / 32

Total Strikes

36 / 63

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 3

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:50

Ctrl Time

3:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Foster	14 / 24	21 / 33	2 / 2	1
1	Matt Brown	9 / 13	18 / 22	1 / 1	1
2	Brian Foster	11 / 20	15 / 30	1 / 1	1
2	Matt Brown	4 / 8	5 / 10	0 / 0	0

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

Brian Foster

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2