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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matt Brown won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1499

Elo1379

Matt BrownvsBen SaundersUFC Prediction Result

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Saturday, December 14, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:55

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsBen Saunders: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(78.8%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Saunders enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Ben Saunders has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Ben Saunders threatens submissions; Matt Brown has lost 42% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

Ben Saunders

Blue Corner

-355

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1499

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Ben SaundersL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alan Jouban · Feb 18

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 18

SUBvs Sergio Moraes · Sep 18

KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 18

KOvs Takashi Sato · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricBen Saunders

3.76

Strikes / min

3.23

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

55%

Strike defense

51%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

0.20

63%

Takedown defense

66%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownBen Saunders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)Ben Saunders(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +119.8|Blue -119.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +532.0|Blue -532.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetBen Saunders

By target zone

63% acc · 90%

Head

59% acc · 83%

67% acc · 7%

Body

33% acc · 17%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 33%

Distance

33% acc · 42%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

72% acc · 60%

Ground

88% acc · 58%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

Ben Saunders rounds

Round 1Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control4:08

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control3:26

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 47

Sig Strikes

12 / 23

58.5%

Sig Str %

48.5%

40 / 59

Total Strikes

38 / 49

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:34

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Saunders	9 / 14	14 / 19	0 / 0	4
1	Matt Brown	5 / 10	10 / 17	1 / 1	0
2	Ben Saunders	3 / 9	24 / 30	0 / 0	0
2	Matt Brown	25 / 37	30 / 42	1 / 2	0

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

Ben Saunders

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14