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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Steven Peterson won · S-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1455

Matt BessettevsSteven PetersonUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Friday, July 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Steven Peterson won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatt Bessette: Pressure fightervsSteven Peterson: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Steven Peterson wins(54.7%)

Actual result: Steven Peterson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steven Peterson at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Matt Bessette

Red Corner

Steven Peterson

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1366

Elo

1455

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Bessette

oldest →

vs Enrique Barzola · Jan 18

latest

Steven PetersonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Caceres · Jul 19

KOvs Martin Bravo · Sep 19

vs Chase Hooper · Jun 21

vs Julian Erosa · Feb 22

vs Lucas Alexander · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BessetteMetricSteven Peterson

4.36

Strikes / min

4.76

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

5.94

58%

Strike defense

53%

0.64

TDs / 15 min

1.42

61%

Takedown defense

64%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.09Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap-1.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BessetteSteven Peterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Bessette(2 fights)Steven Peterson(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -89.2|Blue +89.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BessetteTargetSteven Peterson

By target zone

35% acc · 74%

Head

31% acc · 59%

80% acc · 21%

Body

83% acc · 26%

60% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

36% acc · 79%

Distance

34% acc · 62%

71% acc · 18%

Clinch

64% acc · 22%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

86% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Bessette rounds

even

Steven Peterson rounds

Round 1Matt Bessette edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control1:12

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 2Steven Peterson edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:54Control

Round 3Steven Peterson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:21

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 141

Sig Strikes

74 / 175

38%

Sig Str %

43.7%

88 / 177

Total Strikes

115 / 220

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 6

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

7:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Steven Peterson	22 / 60	32 / 70	0 / 0	1
1	Matt Bessette	25 / 60	38 / 73	0 / 2	0
2	Steven Peterson	38 / 89	42 / 93	1 / 3	0
2	Matt Bessette	28 / 69	33 / 78	0 / 1	0
3	Steven Peterson	14 / 26	41 / 57	1 / 3	0
3	Matt Bessette	4 / 12	17 / 26	0 / 0	0

Matt Bessette

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2

Steven Peterson

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8