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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Enrique Barzola won · U-DEC R3

Elo1366

Elo1492

Matt BessettevsEnrique BarzolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, January 20, 2018Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Enrique Barzola won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatt Bessette: Pressure fightervsEnrique Barzola: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Enrique Barzola wins(83.2%)

Actual result: Enrique Barzola wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Enrique Barzola at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Enrique Barzola has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Enrique Barzola (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Bessette

Red Corner

Enrique Barzola

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1366

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Bessette

oldest →

vs Steven Peterson · Jul 18

latest

Enrique Barzola

oldest →

vs Gabriel Benitez · May 17

vs Brandon Davis · May 18

vs Kevin Aguilar · Mar 19

vs Bobby Moffett · Aug 19

vs Movsar Evloev · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BessetteMetricEnrique Barzola

4.36

Strikes / min

3.91

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

58%

Strike defense

68%

0.64

TDs / 15 min

4.20

61%

Takedown defense

66%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.09Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap+0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BessetteEnrique Barzola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Bessette(2 fights)Enrique Barzola(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -125.6|Blue +125.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +47.7|Blue -47.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BessetteTargetEnrique Barzola

By target zone

24% acc · 63%

Head

30% acc · 45%

48% acc · 35%

Body

76% acc · 24%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

77% acc · 31%

By position

29% acc · 95%

Distance

44% acc · 78%

67% acc · 5%

Clinch

Ground

50% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Bessette rounds

even

Enrique Barzola rounds

Round 1Enrique Barzola edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Enrique Barzola edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:13Control

Round 3Enrique Barzola edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 146

Sig Strikes

55 / 122

28.3%

Sig Str %

46%

55 / 158

Total Strikes

73 / 143

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 10

—

TD %

47.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Enrique Barzola	15 / 34	16 / 36	1 / 2
1	Matt Bessette	11 / 52	12 / 53	0 / 0
2	Enrique Barzola	17 / 31	25 / 39	3 / 5
2	Matt Bessette	9 / 33	15 / 39	0 / 0
3	Enrique Barzola	23 / 57	32 / 68	1 / 3
3	Matt Bessette	23 / 61	28 / 66	0 / 0

Matt Bessette

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2

Enrique Barzola

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9