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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mateusz Rebecki won · SUB R1

Elo1473

Elo1489

Mateusz RebeckivsRoosevelt RobertsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 11, 2023New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Mateusz Rebecki won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:08

Model Prediction: Mateusz Rebecki wins(81.1%)

Actual result: Mateusz Rebecki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mateusz Rebecki at -920 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Rebecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Roosevelt Roberts enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Rebecki (53.5%).
Roosevelt Roberts has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Rebecki

Red Corner

Roosevelt Roberts

Blue Corner

-920

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+550

(15%)

1473

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

6'2"

167.64 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mateusz RebeckiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Oct 24

vs Chris Duncan · Aug 25

vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25

SUBvs Grant Dawson · May 26

latest

Roosevelt RobertsL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brok Weaver · May 20

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jun 20

vs Kevin Croom · Sep 20

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Aug 21

vs Ludovit Klein · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mateusz RebeckiMetricRoosevelt Roberts

4.79

Strikes / min

2.84

4.36

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

54%

Strike defense

52%

3.05

TDs / 15 min

1.18

53%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mateusz RebeckiRoosevelt Roberts

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mateusz Rebecki(8 fights)Roosevelt Roberts(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.0|Blue +16.0

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -672.0|Blue +672.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mateusz RebeckiTargetRoosevelt Roberts

By target zone

64% acc · 70%

Head

20% acc · 50%

0% acc

Body

0% acc

75% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

33% acc · 30%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 70%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mateusz Rebecki rounds

even

Roosevelt Roberts rounds

Round 1Mateusz Rebecki edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control2:14

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 16

Sig Strikes

2 / 7

62%

Sig Str %

28%

28 / 38

Total Strikes

6 / 12

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:14

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Roosevelt Roberts	2 / 7	6 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Mateusz Rebecki	10 / 16	28 / 38	2 / 2	1

Mateusz Rebecki

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Roosevelt Roberts

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10