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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mateusz Rebecki won · U-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1460

Mateusz RebeckivsNick FioreUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Saturday, January 14, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mateusz Rebecki won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMateusz Rebecki: WrestlervsNick Fiore: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mateusz Rebecki wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Mateusz Rebecki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mateusz Rebecki at -850 American odds

+$12 profit

$112 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Rebecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mateusz Rebecki has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Nick Fiore has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Rebecki (53.5%).
Nick Fiore has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Rebecki

Red Corner

Nick Fiore

Blue Corner

-850

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+600

(14%)

1473

Elo

1460

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

167.64 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mateusz RebeckiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Oct 24

vs Chris Duncan · Aug 25

vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25

SUBvs Grant Dawson · May 26

latest

Nick Fiore

oldest →

vs Chase Hooper · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mateusz RebeckiMetricNick Fiore

4.79

Strikes / min

2.83

4.36

Strikes absorbed / min

7.93

54%

Strike defense

42%

3.05

TDs / 15 min

2.50

53%

Takedown defense

71%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43Δ 5.53 — meaningful gap-5.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mateusz RebeckiNick Fiore

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mateusz Rebecki(8 fights)Nick Fiore(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.4|Blue -13.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mateusz RebeckiTargetNick Fiore

By target zone

42% acc · 60%

Head

33% acc · 74%

73% acc · 30%

Body

54% acc · 21%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

46% acc · 71%

Distance

34% acc · 82%

40% acc · 4%

Clinch

56% acc · 15%

96% acc · 25%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mateusz Rebecki rounds

even

Nick Fiore rounds

Round 1Mateusz Rebecki edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns1

Control1:32

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mateusz Rebecki edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control2:43

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Mateusz Rebecki edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control4:12

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 171

Sig Strikes

34 / 93

52%

Sig Str %

35%

130 / 228

Total Strikes

52 / 113

3 / 4

TDs

1 / 3

83.3%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

8:27

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nick Fiore	20 / 53	23 / 57	0 / 0
1	Mateusz Rebecki	54 / 101	59 / 107	1 / 1
2	Nick Fiore	11 / 31	19 / 39	1 / 2
2	Mateusz Rebecki	23 / 49	42 / 76	1 / 2
3	Nick Fiore	3 / 9	10 / 17	0 / 1
3	Mateusz Rebecki	12 / 21	29 / 45	1 / 1

Mateusz Rebecki

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Nick Fiore

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2