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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Mateusz Rebecki won · S-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1549

Mateusz RebeckivsMyktybek OrolbaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Saturday, October 26, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Mateusz Rebecki won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMateusz Rebecki: WrestlervsMyktybek Orolbai: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mateusz Rebecki wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Mateusz Rebecki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mateusz Rebecki at +215 American odds

+$215 profit

$315 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Rebecki enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Myktybek Orolbai enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Rebecki (53.5%).
Myktybek Orolbai has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Rebecki

Red Corner

Myktybek Orolbai

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1473

Elo

1549

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

167.64 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mateusz RebeckiL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 23

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24

vs Chris Duncan · Aug 25

vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25

SUBvs Grant Dawson · May 26

latest

Myktybek OrolbaiW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Uros Medic · Nov 23

vs Elves Brener · May 24

SUBvs Tofiq Musayev · Jun 25

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 25

vs Chris Curtis · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mateusz RebeckiMetricMyktybek Orolbai

4.79

Strikes / min

2.78

4.36

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

54%

Strike defense

51%

3.05

TDs / 15 min

8.77

53%

Takedown defense

40%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mateusz RebeckiMyktybek Orolbai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mateusz Rebecki(8 fights)Myktybek Orolbai(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -75.8|Blue +75.8

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mateusz RebeckiTargetMyktybek Orolbai

By target zone

42% acc · 73%

Head

40% acc · 75%

91% acc · 14%

Body

55% acc · 10%

75% acc · 13%

Leg

90% acc · 15%

By position

43% acc · 76%

Distance

45% acc · 98%

83% acc · 7%

Clinch

0% acc

86% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mateusz Rebecki rounds

even

Myktybek Orolbai rounds

Round 1Mateusz Rebecki edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Myktybek Orolbai edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:15

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Mateusz Rebecki edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns3

Control2:09

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:21Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 146

Sig Strikes

61 / 135

49.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

93 / 174

Total Strikes

85 / 162

3 / 4

TDs

2 / 5

50%

TD %

62.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:24

Ctrl Time

2:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Myktybek Orolbai	22 / 51	22 / 51	0 / 0
1	Mateusz Rebecki	27 / 57	27 / 57	0 / 1
2	Myktybek Orolbai	25 / 57	28 / 61	1 / 4
2	Mateusz Rebecki	23 / 55	24 / 56	0 / 0
3	Myktybek Orolbai	14 / 27	35 / 50	1 / 1
3	Mateusz Rebecki	21 / 34	42 / 61	3 / 3

Mateusz Rebecki

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Myktybek Orolbai

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6