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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mateusz Rebecki won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1473

Elo1499

Mateusz RebeckivsLoik RadzhabovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · Saturday, June 24, 2023Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Mateusz Rebecki won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:36

Style matchupMateusz Rebecki: WrestlervsLoik Radzhabov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mateusz Rebecki wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Mateusz Rebecki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mateusz Rebecki at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Rebecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Rebecki (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Rebecki

Red Corner

Loik Radzhabov

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+108

(48%)

1473

Elo

1499

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'11"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mateusz RebeckiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Oct 24

vs Chris Duncan · Aug 25

vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25

SUBvs Grant Dawson · May 26

latest

Loik Radzhabov

oldest →

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 23

KOvs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady · Mar 24

vs Trey Ogden · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mateusz RebeckiMetricLoik Radzhabov

4.79

Strikes / min

2.89

4.36

Strikes absorbed / min

3.76

54%

Strike defense

46%

3.05

TDs / 15 min

4.65

53%

Takedown defense

42%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mateusz RebeckiLoik Radzhabov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mateusz Rebecki(8 fights)Loik Radzhabov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -26.3|Blue +26.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mateusz RebeckiTargetLoik Radzhabov

By target zone

41% acc · 44%

Head

32% acc · 84%

71% acc · 22%

Body

75% acc · 16%

90% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

57% acc · 100%

Distance

35% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mateusz Rebecki rounds

even

Loik Radzhabov rounds

Round 1Mateusz Rebecki edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control1:53

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Mateusz Rebecki edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns2

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 95

Sig Strikes

19 / 54

57%

Sig Str %

35%

64 / 110

Total Strikes

19 / 54

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:57

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Loik Radzhabov	10 / 30	10 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Mateusz Rebecki	28 / 54	35 / 64	1 / 1	1
2	Loik Radzhabov	9 / 24	9 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Mateusz Rebecki	26 / 41	29 / 46	0 / 0	0

Mateusz Rebecki

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Loik Radzhabov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4