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Lightweight
3 Rounds
2 days away
Elo1473
Mateusz Rebecki editorial illustration
Elo1459
Kyle Prepolec editorial illustration

Mateusz RebeckivsKyle PrepolecUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, August 1, 2026Belgrade, Serbia

Fight begins in
Style matchupMateusz Rebecki: WrestlervsKyle Prepolec: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

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Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mateusz Rebecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Kyle Prepolec enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
  • Kyle Prepolec has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Rebecki
Red Corner
VS
Kyle Prepolec
Blue Corner
-505
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+365
(22%)
1473
Elo
1459
33
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'10"
167.64 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mateusz RebeckiL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24
W
vs Myktybek Orolbai · Oct 24
L
vs Chris Duncan · Aug 25
L
vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25
L
SUBvs Grant Dawson · May 26
latest
Kyle PrepolecL4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Nordine Taleb · May 19
L
vs Austin Hubbard · Sep 19
L
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · May 25
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mateusz RebeckiMetricKyle Prepolec
4.79
Strikes / min
3.25
4.36
Strikes absorbed / min
5.69
54%
Strike defense
48%
3.05
TDs / 15 min
0.00
53%
Takedown defense
45%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.43Δ 2.87 — meaningful gap-2.44
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401463148515081530← oldermost recent →
Mateusz Rebecki(8 fights)Kyle Prepolec(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +14.1|Blue -14.1
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -14.3|Blue +14.3
Layoff
Red -203.0|Blue +203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: Submission.

KO / TKO50%

Historical win share: Mateusz Rebecki earned 25% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission50%

Historical win share: Mateusz Rebecki earned 25% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

Mateusz Rebecki

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights9

Kyle Prepolec

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4