← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mateusz Gamrot won · U-DEC R3

Elo1525

Elo1491

Mateusz GamrotvsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Saturday, March 9, 2024Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Mateusz Gamrot won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot wins(73.6%)

Actual result: Mateusz Gamrot wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mateusz Gamrot at -485 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Gamrot has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Gamrot

Red Corner

Rafael Dos Anjos

Blue Corner

-485

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+370

(21%)

1525

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mateusz Gamrot

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Sep 23

vs Dan Hooker · Aug 24

vs Ludovit Klein · May 25

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 25

SUBvs Esteban Ribovics · Apr 26

latest

Rafael Dos AnjosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Mar 22

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mateusz GamrotMetricRafael Dos Anjos

3.21

Strikes / min

3.48

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

60%

Strike defense

60%

5.22

TDs / 15 min

1.95

83%

Takedown defense

54%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mateusz GamrotRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mateusz Gamrot(10 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.0|Blue -34.0

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mateusz GamrotTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

53% acc · 84%

Head

39% acc · 67%

75% acc · 16%

Body

56% acc · 14%

Leg

88% acc · 19%

By position

52% acc · 81%

Distance

39% acc · 72%

75% acc · 11%

Clinch

88% acc · 19%

83% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mateusz Gamrot rounds

even

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

Round 1Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control2:35

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns5

Control2:40

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns4

Control1:46

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 102

Sig Strikes

36 / 78

55.3%

Sig Str %

47.7%

111 / 163

Total Strikes

39 / 82

11 / 19

TDs

0 / 0

57%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:01

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	11 / 19	14 / 23	0 / 0
1	Mateusz Gamrot	19 / 34	40 / 61	2 / 4
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	12 / 25	12 / 25	0 / 0
2	Mateusz Gamrot	10 / 18	28 / 36	5 / 9
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	13 / 34	13 / 34	0 / 0
3	Mateusz Gamrot	28 / 50	43 / 66	4 / 6

Mateusz Gamrot

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32