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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mateusz Gamrot won · S-DEC R3

Elo1525

Elo1507

Mateusz GamrotvsJalin TurnerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Saturday, March 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mateusz Gamrot won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMateusz Gamrot: WrestlervsJalin Turner: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Mateusz Gamrot wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Gamrot has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jalin Turner has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Gamrot

Red Corner

Jalin Turner

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1525

Elo

1507

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mateusz Gamrot

oldest →

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Mar 24

vs Dan Hooker · Aug 24

vs Ludovit Klein · May 25

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 25

SUBvs Esteban Ribovics · Apr 26

latest

Jalin Turner

oldest →

vs Dan Hooker · Jul 23

KOvs King Green · Dec 23

KOvs Renato Moicano · Apr 24

SUBvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Mar 25

KOvs Edson Barboza · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mateusz GamrotMetricJalin Turner

3.21

Strikes / min

5.79

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

4.54

60%

Strike defense

41%

5.22

TDs / 15 min

0.75

83%

Takedown defense

75%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.40evenly matched on net striking+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mateusz GamrotJalin Turner

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mateusz Gamrot(10 fights)Jalin Turner(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.7|Blue -17.7

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mateusz GamrotTargetJalin Turner

By target zone

60% acc · 62%

Head

32% acc · 57%

67% acc · 7%

Body

64% acc · 35%

100% acc · 31%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

66% acc · 72%

Distance

37% acc · 83%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

75% acc · 21%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mateusz Gamrot rounds

even

Jalin Turner rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:26

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:35

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:51

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 42

Sig Strikes

40 / 97

67.7%

Sig Str %

43.3%

89 / 109

Total Strikes

62 / 119

4 / 12

TDs

0 / 1

49%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:52

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jalin Turner	12 / 31	23 / 42	0 / 0
1	Mateusz Gamrot	9 / 14	14 / 22	2 / 2
2	Jalin Turner	18 / 48	19 / 49	0 / 0
2	Mateusz Gamrot	13 / 17	60 / 66	1 / 3
3	Jalin Turner	10 / 18	20 / 28	0 / 1
3	Mateusz Gamrot	7 / 11	15 / 21	1 / 7

Mateusz Gamrot

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Jalin Turner

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14