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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Mateusz Gamrot won · Submission R2
Elo1525
Mateusz Gamrot editorial illustration
Elo1501
Esteban Ribovics

Mateusz GamrotvsEsteban RibovicsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · Saturday, April 11, 2026Miami, USA

Official fight result

Mateusz Gamrot won

Submission · Round 2 · 4:19

Style matchupMateusz Gamrot: WrestlervsEsteban Ribovics: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Mateusz Gamrot wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mateusz Gamrot has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Gamrot
Red Corner
VS
Esteban Ribovics
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1525
Elo
1501
35
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mateusz Gamrot
oldest →
W
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Sep 23
W
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Mar 24
L
vs Dan Hooker · Aug 24
W
vs Ludovit Klein · May 25
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 25
latest
Esteban Ribovics
oldest →
W
vs Kamuela Kirk · Jul 23
W
KOvs Terrance McKinney · May 24
W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 24
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Mar 25
W
vs Elves Brener · Aug 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mateusz GamrotMetricEsteban Ribovics
3.21
Strikes / min
7.27
2.81
Strikes absorbed / min
5.83
60%
Strike defense
54%
5.22
TDs / 15 min
0.35
83%
Takedown defense
66%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.40Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap+1.44
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Mateusz Gamrot(10 fights)Esteban Ribovics(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +23.5|Blue -23.5
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -70.0|Blue +70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Mateusz Gamrot

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12

Esteban Ribovics

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6