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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dan Hooker won · S-DEC R3

Elo1525

Elo1484

Mateusz GamrotvsDan HookerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Saturday, August 17, 2024Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Dan Hooker won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMateusz Gamrot: WrestlervsDan Hooker: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mateusz Gamrot wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Dan Hooker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mateusz Gamrot at -445 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mateusz Gamrot has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (54.1%).
Dan Hooker has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Gamrot

Red Corner

Dan Hooker

Blue Corner

-445

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1525

Elo

1484

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mateusz Gamrot

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Sep 23

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Mar 24

vs Ludovit Klein · May 25

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 25

SUBvs Esteban Ribovics · Apr 26

latest

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Arnold Allen · Mar 22

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mateusz GamrotMetricDan Hooker

3.21

Strikes / min

4.82

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

4.94

60%

Strike defense

49%

5.22

TDs / 15 min

0.68

83%

Takedown defense

77%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mateusz GamrotDan Hooker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mateusz Gamrot(10 fights)Dan Hooker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.5|Blue -40.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -245.0|Blue +245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mateusz GamrotTargetDan Hooker

By target zone

47% acc · 88%

Head

37% acc · 63%

75% acc · 9%

Body

75% acc · 37%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 67%

Distance

37% acc · 68%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

63% acc · 30%

Ground

94% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mateusz Gamrot rounds

even

Dan Hooker rounds

Round 1Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns2

Control1:31

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control2:37

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:51

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 129

Sig Strikes

65 / 143

52.7%

Sig Str %

46%

88 / 154

Total Strikes

82 / 162

5 / 15

TDs

0 / 0

38%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:59

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dan Hooker	20 / 43	24 / 47	0 / 0
1	Mateusz Gamrot	26 / 54	31 / 59	2 / 4
2	Dan Hooker	17 / 34	27 / 46	0 / 0
2	Mateusz Gamrot	11 / 17	27 / 34	2 / 4
3	Dan Hooker	28 / 66	31 / 69	0 / 0
3	Mateusz Gamrot	27 / 58	30 / 61	1 / 7

Mateusz Gamrot

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24