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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mason Jones won · U-DEC R3

Elo1542

Elo1513

Mason JonesvsDavid OnamaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Saturday, October 23, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mason Jones won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMason Jones: WrestlervsDavid Onama: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mason Jones wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Mason Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mason Jones at -410 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mason Jones enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mason Jones has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mason Jones

Red Corner

David Onama

Blue Corner

-410

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1542

Elo

1513

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mason JonesW3 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Davis · Jan 21

vs Ludovit Klein · Jul 22

vs Jeremy Stephens · May 25

KOvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 25

vs Axel Sola · Mar 26

latest

David Onama

oldest →

KOvs Gabriel Santos · Jun 23

vs Jonathan Pearce · Apr 24

vs Roberto Romero · Nov 24

vs Giga Chikadze · Apr 25

KOvs Steve Garcia · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mason JonesMetricDavid Onama

5.98

Strikes / min

5.07

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.89

50%

Strike defense

51%

3.48

TDs / 15 min

1.05

73%

Takedown defense

52%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.53Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mason JonesDavid Onama

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mason Jones(6 fights)David Onama(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.1|Blue -29.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mason JonesTargetDavid Onama

By target zone

49% acc · 75%

Head

56% acc · 89%

91% acc · 23%

Body

89% acc · 9%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

53% acc · 79%

Distance

55% acc · 78%

56% acc · 11%

Clinch

83% acc · 21%

89% acc · 9%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mason Jones rounds

even

David Onama rounds

Round 1Mason Jones edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns3

Control2:34

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Mason Jones edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns2

Control2:49

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Mason Jones edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns3

Control3:38

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 157

Sig Strikes

90 / 153

56.3%

Sig Str %

60.7%

116 / 191

Total Strikes

121 / 186

8 / 14

TDs

0 / 1

56.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:01

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	David Onama	30 / 60	41 / 72	0 / 0
1	Mason Jones	30 / 66	41 / 80	3 / 5
2	David Onama	35 / 59	42 / 67	0 / 1
2	Mason Jones	33 / 52	45 / 65	2 / 4
3	David Onama	25 / 34	38 / 47	0 / 0
3	Mason Jones	24 / 39	30 / 46	3 / 5

Mason Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

David Onama

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9