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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mason Jones won · U-DEC R3

Elo1540

Elo1525

Mason JonesvsAxel SolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Saturday, March 21, 2026London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Mason Jones won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMason Jones: WrestlervsAxel Sola: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mason Jones wins(69.0%)

Actual result: Mason Jones wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mason Jones at -138 American odds

+$72 profit

$172 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Axel Sola enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Axel Sola is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Mason Jones has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Axel Sola has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mason Jones has 73pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Axel Sola (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Mason Jones

Red Corner

Axel Sola

Blue Corner

-138

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+112

(47%)

1540

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mason Jones

oldest →

vs David Onama · Oct 21

vs Ludovit Klein · Jul 22

vs Jeremy Stephens · May 25

KOvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 25

KOvs MarQuel Mederos · Aug 26

latest

Axel SolaW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rhys McKee · Sep 25

SUBvs Ismael Bonfim · Jul 26

KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mason JonesMetricAxel Sola

5.98

Strikes / min

4.07

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

5.29

50%

Strike defense

61%

3.48

TDs / 15 min

2.22

73%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.53Δ 2.75 — meaningful gap-1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mason JonesAxel Sola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mason Jones(6 fights)Axel Sola(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.8|Blue -14.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mason JonesTargetAxel Sola

By target zone

39% acc · 69%

Head

42% acc · 75%

78% acc · 26%

Body

84% acc · 25%

83% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

43% acc · 75%

Distance

49% acc · 94%

62% acc · 24%

Clinch

40% acc · 6%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mason Jones rounds

even

Axel Sola rounds

Round 1Axel Sola edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 2Mason Jones edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 3Mason Jones edged it

Sig. strikes58

Takedowns0

Control0:05

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

110 / 236

Sig Strikes

65 / 135

44.7%

Sig Str %

47.3%

123 / 251

Total Strikes

68 / 141

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Axel Sola	15 / 32	18 / 38	2 / 4
1	Mason Jones	18 / 46	27 / 55	0 / 0
2	Axel Sola	22 / 51	22 / 51	0 / 0
2	Mason Jones	34 / 73	35 / 76	0 / 0
3	Axel Sola	28 / 52	28 / 52	1 / 3
3	Mason Jones	58 / 117	61 / 120	0 / 0

Mason Jones

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7

Axel Sola

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4