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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Valerie Letourneau won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1359

Maryna MorozvsValerie LetourneauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · Sunday, August 23, 2015Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

Official fight result

Valerie Letourneau won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMaryna Moroz: Pressure fightervsValerie Letourneau: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Valerie Letourneau wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Valerie Letourneau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valerie Letourneau at +225 American odds

+$225 profit

$325 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maryna Moroz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Valerie Letourneau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Valerie Letourneau has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Maryna Moroz

Red Corner

Valerie Letourneau

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1493

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maryna MorozL3 streak

oldest →

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Mar 20

SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Mar 22

vs Jennifer Maia · Nov 22

SUBvs Karine Silva · Aug 23

vs Joanne Wood · Mar 24

latest

Valerie LetourneauL3 streak

oldest →

vs Elizabeth Phillips · Jun 14

vs Jessica Rakoczy · Apr 15

vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Nov 15

KOvs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 16

vs Viviane Pereira · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maryna MorozMetricValerie Letourneau

4.42

Strikes / min

4.51

4.89

Strikes absorbed / min

5.40

51%

Strike defense

58%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.77

42%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47evenly matched on net striking-0.89

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Maryna MorozValerie Letourneau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maryna Moroz(10 fights)Valerie Letourneau(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.3|Blue -134.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -3.3|Blue +3.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maryna MorozTargetValerie Letourneau

By target zone

25% acc · 62%

Head

42% acc · 74%

79% acc · 35%

Body

74% acc · 20%

67% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

34% acc · 93%

Distance

47% acc · 90%

44% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

Ground

43% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maryna Moroz rounds

even

Valerie Letourneau rounds

Round 1Valerie Letourneau edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:11Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Valerie Letourneau edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Valerie Letourneau edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 161

Sig Strikes

69 / 145

31.3%

Sig Str %

45%

79 / 189

Total Strikes

106 / 194

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

6:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Valerie Letourneau	22 / 41	34 / 60	0 / 0
1	Maryna Moroz	10 / 42	12 / 47	0 / 0
2	Valerie Letourneau	38 / 77	40 / 79	0 / 0
2	Maryna Moroz	36 / 91	37 / 92	0 / 0
3	Valerie Letourneau	9 / 27	32 / 55	1 / 1
3	Maryna Moroz	9 / 28	30 / 50	0 / 0

Maryna Moroz

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11

Valerie Letourneau

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6