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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Maryna Moroz won · SUB R2

Elo1493

Elo1491

Maryna MorozvsMariya AgapovaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Maryna Moroz won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:27

Style matchupMaryna Moroz: Pressure fightervsMariya Agapova: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Maryna Moroz wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Maryna Moroz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Maryna Moroz at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Maryna Moroz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Mariya Agapova (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Maryna Moroz

Red Corner

Mariya Agapova

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1493

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Maryna MorozL3 streak

oldest →

vs Sabina Mazo · Mar 19

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Mar 20

vs Jennifer Maia · Nov 22

SUBvs Karine Silva · Aug 23

vs Joanne Wood · Mar 24

latest

Mariya AgapovaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Hannah Cifers · Jun 20

KOvs Shana Dobson · Aug 20

SUBvs Sabina Mazo · Oct 21

SUBvs Gillian Robertson · Sep 22

SUBvs Luana Santos · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Maryna MorozMetricMariya Agapova

4.42

Strikes / min

4.43

4.89

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

51%

Strike defense

52%

0.70

TDs / 15 min

0.55

42%

Takedown defense

45%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Maryna MorozMariya Agapova

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Maryna Moroz(10 fights)Mariya Agapova(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +574.0|Blue -574.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Maryna MorozTargetMariya Agapova

By target zone

64% acc · 75%

Head

47% acc · 44%

88% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 56%

0% acc

Leg

0% acc

By position

25% acc · 7%

Distance

27% acc · 25%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 75%

70% acc · 68%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Maryna Moroz rounds

even

Mariya Agapova rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control3:28

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Round 2Maryna Moroz edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control3:15

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 42

Sig Strikes

16 / 27

52.5%

Sig Str %

60.5%

51 / 74

Total Strikes

72 / 86

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

62.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:43

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mariya Agapova	10 / 18	40 / 50	0 / 0	0
1	Maryna Moroz	2 / 6	14 / 20	1 / 4	2
2	Mariya Agapova	6 / 9	32 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Maryna Moroz	26 / 36	37 / 54	1 / 1	1

Maryna Moroz

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11

Mariya Agapova

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6