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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Marwan Rahiki won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1546

Elo1460

Marwan RahikivsHarry HardwickUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marwan Rahiki won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupMarwan Rahiki: Pressure fightervsHarry Hardwick: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Marwan Rahiki wins(83.2%)

Actual result: Marwan Rahiki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marwan Rahiki at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marwan Rahiki is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Harry Hardwick has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Marwan Rahiki has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Marwan Rahiki has 100pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Harry Hardwick (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Marwan Rahiki

Red Corner

Harry Hardwick

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1546

Elo

1460

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marwan Rahiki

oldest →

KOvs Ollie Schmid · May 26

latest

Harry Hardwick

oldest →

KOvs Kaue Fernandes · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marwan RahikiMetricHarry Hardwick

7.75

Strikes / min

5.47

5.90

Strikes absorbed / min

8.54

57%

Strike defense

44%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.85Δ 4.92 — meaningful gap-3.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marwan RahikiHarry Hardwick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marwan Rahiki(2 fights)Harry Hardwick(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +86.1|Blue -86.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marwan RahikiTargetHarry Hardwick

By target zone

48% acc · 67%

Head

33% acc · 60%

72% acc · 20%

Body

85% acc · 17%

92% acc · 13%

Leg

79% acc · 23%

By position

55% acc · 98%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marwan Rahiki rounds

even

Harry Hardwick rounds

Round 1Marwan Rahiki edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 2Marwan Rahiki edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control1:35

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

90 / 164

Sig Strikes

65 / 149

54.5%

Sig Str %

43.5%

93 / 171

Total Strikes

76 / 164

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:35

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Harry Hardwick	40 / 94	44 / 102	0 / 0
1	Marwan Rahiki	44 / 83	44 / 83	0 / 0
2	Harry Hardwick	25 / 55	32 / 62	0 / 1
2	Marwan Rahiki	46 / 81	49 / 88	0 / 0

Marwan Rahiki

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights1

Harry Hardwick

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2