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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Marvin Vettori won · U-DEC R3

Elo1467

Elo1497

Marvin VettorivsRoman DolidzeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Marvin Vettori won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Marvin Vettori wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Marvin Vettori wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marvin Vettori at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marvin Vettori enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Marvin Vettori has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Marvin Vettori (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marvin Vettori

Red Corner

Roman Dolidze

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1467

Elo

1497

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marvin VettoriL5 streak

oldest →

vs Robert Whittaker · Sep 22

vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25

vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25

vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25

latest

Roman DolidzeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Jun 24

KOvs Kevin Holland · Oct 24

vs Marvin Vettori · Mar 25

SUBvs Anthony Hernandez · Aug 25

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marvin VettoriMetricRoman Dolidze

4.74

Strikes / min

3.19

4.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

56%

Strike defense

48%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

1.16

68%

Takedown defense

32%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marvin VettoriRoman Dolidze

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marvin Vettori(10 fights)Roman Dolidze(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -30.1|Blue +30.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marvin VettoriTargetRoman Dolidze

By target zone

36% acc · 57%

Head

31% acc · 73%

62% acc · 8%

Body

73% acc · 15%

95% acc · 36%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

100

47% acc · 94%

Distance

37% acc · 94%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

33% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marvin Vettori rounds

even

Roman Dolidze rounds

Round 1Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

106 / 218

Sig Strikes

71 / 192

48%

Sig Str %

36%

106 / 218

Total Strikes

71 / 192

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roman Dolidze	29 / 71	29 / 71	0 / 0
1	Marvin Vettori	38 / 75	38 / 75	0 / 0
2	Roman Dolidze	16 / 50	16 / 50	0 / 1
2	Marvin Vettori	28 / 69	28 / 69	0 / 0
3	Roman Dolidze	26 / 71	26 / 71	0 / 0
3	Marvin Vettori	40 / 74	40 / 74	0 / 0

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17

Roman Dolidze

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14