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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Marvin Vettori won · U-DEC
Elo1467
Elo1510
Kevin Holland

Marvin VettorivsKevin HollandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · Saturday, April 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marvin Vettori won

U-DEC

Style matchupMarvin Vettori: Pressure fightervsKevin Holland: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Marvin Vettori wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Marvin Vettori wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marvin Vettori at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marvin Vettori enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Marvin Vettori (53.5%).
  • Kevin Holland has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marvin Vettori
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Holland
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
1467
Elo
1510
32
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'3"
187.96 cm
Reach
205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marvin VettoriL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23
L
vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23
L
vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25
L
vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25
L
vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25
latest
Kevin Holland
oldest →
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25
W
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25
L
vs Mike Malott · Oct 25
W
DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marvin VettoriMetricKevin Holland
4.74
Strikes / min
4.24
4.55
Strikes absorbed / min
3.21
56%
Strike defense
50%
1.41
TDs / 15 min
0.79
68%
Takedown defense
57%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.19evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1579 vs 1586Strikes4.1 vs 3.7Takedowns2.2 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.60Form1.0 vs 0.5
Marvin VettoriKevin Holland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501470149015101530← oldermost recent →
Marvin Vettori(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -42.5|Blue +42.5
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +105.0|Blue -105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marvin VettoriTargetKevin Holland

By target zone

22
36% acc · 92%
Head
24
30% acc · 65%
2
67% acc · 8%
Body
5
50% acc · 14%
0
Leg
8
67% acc · 22%

By position

15
35% acc · 63%
Distance
31
36% acc · 84%
2
40% acc · 8%
Clinch
6
33% acc · 16%
7
44% acc · 29%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Marvin Vettori rounds
1
even
0
Kevin Holland rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control2:59
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Marvin Vettori edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns2
Control4:26
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Marvin Vettori edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns3
Control3:38
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 4Marvin Vettori edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns2
Control4:27
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Marvin Vettori edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns3
Control4:31
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
24 / 64
Sig Strikes
37 / 103
28.2%
Sig Str %
36.8%
152 / 250
Total Strikes
138 / 214
11 / 17
TDs
0 / 0
63.2%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
20:01
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kevin Holland16 / 4336 / 640 / 00
1Marvin Vettori9 / 2424 / 441 / 20
2Kevin Holland7 / 1017 / 230 / 00
2Marvin Vettori8 / 1749 / 842 / 30
3Kevin Holland8 / 2325 / 400 / 00
3Marvin Vettori6 / 1610 / 243 / 41
4Marvin Vettori1 / 529 / 462 / 40
4Kevin Holland4 / 1619 / 340 / 00
5Kevin Holland2 / 1141 / 530 / 00
5Marvin Vettori0 / 240 / 523 / 40

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights17

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights27