Middleweight

3 Rounds

Marvin Vettori won · U-DEC R3

Elo1467

Elo1374

Marvin VettorivsCezar FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · Saturday, July 13, 2019Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Marvin Vettori won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarvin Vettori: Pressure fightervsCezar Ferreira: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Cezar Ferreira wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Marvin Vettori wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cezar Ferreira at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marvin Vettori enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Cezar Ferreira has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Cezar Ferreira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marvin Vettori

Red Corner

Cezar Ferreira

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1467

Elo

1374

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marvin VettoriL4 streak

oldest →

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23

vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25

vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25

vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25

latest

Cezar Ferreira

oldest →

SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 16

vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17

vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17

SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18

vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marvin VettoriMetricCezar Ferreira

4.74

Strikes / min

1.90

4.55

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

56%

Strike defense

53%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

2.69

68%

Takedown defense

84%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marvin VettoriCezar Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marvin Vettori(10 fights)Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +93.0|Blue -93.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +217.0|Blue -217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marvin VettoriTargetCezar Ferreira

By target zone

50% acc · 88%

Head

31% acc · 44%

78% acc · 9%

Body

54% acc · 18%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

71% acc · 38%

By position

47% acc · 64%

Distance

41% acc · 85%

67% acc · 26%

Clinch

86% acc · 15%

73% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marvin Vettori rounds

even

Cezar Ferreira rounds

Round 1Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control0:49

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:38

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:07

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 148

Sig Strikes

39 / 88

52.3%

Sig Str %

44.3%

106 / 176

Total Strikes

41 / 90

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 5

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:34

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cezar Ferreira	17 / 30	17 / 30	0 / 0
1	Marvin Vettori	23 / 46	39 / 62	1 / 1
2	Cezar Ferreira	12 / 26	14 / 28	0 / 1
2	Marvin Vettori	24 / 44	36 / 56	1 / 2
3	Cezar Ferreira	10 / 32	10 / 32	0 / 4
3	Marvin Vettori	31 / 58	31 / 58	0 / 1

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15