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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brunno Ferreira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1467

Elo1504

Marvin VettorivsBrunno FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Saturday, December 6, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brunno Ferreira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarvin Vettori: Pressure fightervsBrunno Ferreira: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Brunno Ferreira wins(59.4%)

Actual result: Brunno Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brunno Ferreira at +108 American odds

+$108 profit

$208 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marvin Vettori enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marvin Vettori (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marvin Vettori

Red Corner

Brunno Ferreira

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+108

(48%)

1467

Elo

1504

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marvin VettoriL3 streak

oldest →

vs Robert Whittaker · Sep 22

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23

vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25

vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25

latest

Brunno FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Oct 24

SUBvs Armen Petrosyan · Mar 25

SUBvs Jackson McVey · Jul 25

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Mar 26

DECvs Ikram Aliskerov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marvin VettoriMetricBrunno Ferreira

4.74

Strikes / min

3.77

4.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

56%

Strike defense

51%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

1.25

68%

Takedown defense

61%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marvin VettoriBrunno Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marvin Vettori(10 fights)Brunno Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.6|Blue +36.6

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marvin VettoriTargetBrunno Ferreira

By target zone

44% acc · 89%

Head

46% acc · 78%

100% acc · 1%

Body

90% acc · 12%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

89% acc · 10%

By position

48% acc · 98%

Distance

51% acc · 95%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

0% acc

Ground

33% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marvin Vettori rounds

even

Brunno Ferreira rounds

Round 1Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:04

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control1:04

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 186

Sig Strikes

77 / 149

47.7%

Sig Str %

51%

90 / 188

Total Strikes

77 / 149

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 7

33.3%

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:08

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brunno Ferreira	25 / 47	25 / 47	0 / 1
1	Marvin Vettori	27 / 49	28 / 50	0 / 2
2	Brunno Ferreira	30 / 55	30 / 55	0 / 2
2	Marvin Vettori	31 / 71	31 / 71	0 / 1
3	Brunno Ferreira	22 / 47	22 / 47	1 / 4
3	Marvin Vettori	30 / 66	31 / 67	1 / 1

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17

Brunno Ferreira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10