Middleweight

3 Rounds

Brendan Allen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1467

Elo1550

Marvin VettorivsBrendan AllenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Brendan Allen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarvin Vettori: Pressure fightervsBrendan Allen: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brendan Allen at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marvin Vettori enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marvin Vettori (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marvin Vettori

Red Corner

Brendan Allen

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1467

Elo

1550

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marvin VettoriL3 streak

oldest →

vs Robert Whittaker · Sep 22

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23

vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25

vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25

latest

Brendan AllenW2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Apr 24

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24

vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25

KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25

DECvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marvin VettoriMetricBrendan Allen

4.74

Strikes / min

3.59

4.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

56%

Strike defense

47%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

1.56

68%

Takedown defense

56%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marvin VettoriBrendan Allen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marvin Vettori(10 fights)Brendan Allen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -83.1|Blue +83.1

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marvin VettoriTargetBrendan Allen

By target zone

41% acc · 90%

Head

44% acc · 77%

71% acc · 5%

Body

78% acc · 16%

86% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

41% acc · 91%

Distance

100

48% acc · 90%

80% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

75% acc · 6%

Ground

70% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marvin Vettori rounds

even

Brendan Allen rounds

Round 1Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control1:17

30Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 2Brendan Allen edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

109 / 253

Sig Strikes

111 / 224

43.7%

Sig Str %

49.7%

115 / 262

Total Strikes

119 / 233

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

1:17

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brendan Allen	30 / 55	38 / 64	2 / 3
1	Marvin Vettori	29 / 58	35 / 67	0 / 0
2	Brendan Allen	42 / 83	42 / 83	0 / 0
2	Marvin Vettori	36 / 95	36 / 95	0 / 0
3	Brendan Allen	39 / 86	39 / 86	1 / 1
3	Marvin Vettori	44 / 100	44 / 100	0 / 0

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17

Brendan Allen

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights19