Middleweight

3 Rounds

Marvin Vettori won · U-DEC R3

Elo1467

Elo1410

Marvin VettorivsAndrew SanchezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Marvin Vettori won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarvin Vettori: Pressure fightervsAndrew Sanchez: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Andrew Sanchez wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Marvin Vettori wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrew Sanchez at +310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marvin Vettori enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrew Sanchez has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Marvin Vettori (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marvin Vettori

Red Corner

Andrew Sanchez

Blue Corner

-370

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1467

Elo

1410

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marvin VettoriL4 streak

oldest →

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 23

vs Jared Cannonier · Jun 23

vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 25

vs Brendan Allen · Jul 25

vs Brunno Ferreira · Dec 25

latest

Andrew SanchezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Markus Perez · Aug 18

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · May 19

KOvs Wellington Turman · Aug 20

KOvs Makhmud Muradov · Jan 21

KOvs Bruno Silva · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marvin VettoriMetricAndrew Sanchez

4.74

Strikes / min

4.30

4.55

Strikes absorbed / min

5.10

56%

Strike defense

50%

1.41

TDs / 15 min

2.55

68%

Takedown defense

100%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.19evenly matched on net striking-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marvin VettoriAndrew Sanchez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marvin Vettori(10 fights)Andrew Sanchez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.5|Blue -57.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marvin VettoriTargetAndrew Sanchez

By target zone

39% acc · 85%

Head

14% acc · 54%

71% acc · 12%

Body

35% acc · 15%

75% acc · 4%

Leg

55% acc · 31%

By position

39% acc · 87%

Distance

21% acc · 97%

65% acc · 13%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marvin Vettori rounds

even

Andrew Sanchez rounds

Round 1Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:07

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marvin Vettori edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:13

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 205

Sig Strikes

39 / 185

41%

Sig Str %

21%

86 / 206

Total Strikes

39 / 185

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrew Sanchez	10 / 42	10 / 42	0 / 1
1	Marvin Vettori	30 / 70	30 / 70	0 / 0
2	Andrew Sanchez	17 / 83	17 / 83	0 / 1
2	Marvin Vettori	30 / 73	30 / 73	0 / 0
3	Andrew Sanchez	12 / 60	12 / 60	0 / 0
3	Marvin Vettori	25 / 62	26 / 63	0 / 0

Marvin Vettori

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17

Andrew Sanchez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10