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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Davey Grant won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1392

Elo1521

Martin DayvsDavey GrantUFC Prediction Result

UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Saturday, July 11, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Davey Grant won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:38

Style matchupMartin Day: Well-roundedvsDavey Grant: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Davey Grant wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Davey Grant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Davey Grant at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Day has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Martin Day

Red Corner

Davey Grant

Blue Corner

-162

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1392

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Martin DayL2 streak

oldest →

vs Liu Pingyuan · Nov 18

SUBvs Anderson Dos Santos · Nov 20

latest

Davey Grant

oldest →

vs Daniel Marcos · Jul 23

vs Ramon Taveras · Dec 24

vs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jul 25

SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Oct 25

DECvs Adrian Luna Martinetti · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Martin DayMetricDavey Grant

3.97

Strikes / min

5.58

3.79

Strikes absorbed / min

4.04

53%

Strike defense

54%

0.72

TDs / 15 min

0.95

65%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap+1.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Martin DayDavey Grant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Martin Day(3 fights)Davey Grant(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -128.7|Blue +128.7

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +350.0|Blue -350.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Martin DayTargetDavey Grant

By target zone

34% acc · 73%

Head

33% acc · 64%

63% acc · 24%

Body

79% acc · 26%

67% acc · 3%

Leg

89% acc · 11%

By position

39% acc · 97%

Distance

41% acc · 93%

Clinch

67% acc · 3%

40% acc · 3%

Ground

60% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Martin Day rounds

even

Davey Grant rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:46

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:57Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Davey Grant edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:42

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 3Davey Grant edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 160

Sig Strikes

74 / 177

37.7%

Sig Str %

41%

69 / 168

Total Strikes

87 / 191

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:28

Ctrl Time

2:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Davey Grant	17 / 46	26 / 55	1 / 1	0
1	Martin Day	14 / 47	17 / 50	0 / 1	0
2	Davey Grant	30 / 71	34 / 76	1 / 2	1
2	Martin Day	22 / 58	26 / 63	0 / 0	0
3	Davey Grant	27 / 60	27 / 60	0 / 1	0
3	Martin Day	26 / 55	26 / 55	0 / 0	0

Martin Day

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Davey Grant

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16