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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Anderson Dos Santos won · SUB

Elo1392

Elo1493

Martin DayvsAnderson Dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · Saturday, November 28, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Anderson Dos Santos won

SUB

Style matchupMartin Day: Well-roundedvsAnderson Dos Santos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Martin Day wins(70.3%)

Actual result: Anderson Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Martin Day at -167 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anderson Dos Santos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Anderson Dos Santos threatens submissions; Martin Day has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Martin Day

Red Corner

Anderson Dos Santos

Blue Corner

-167

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1392

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'5"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Martin DayL2 streak

oldest →

vs Liu Pingyuan · Nov 18

KOvs Davey Grant · Jul 20

latest

Anderson Dos SantosL3 streak

oldest →

vs Nad Narimani · Nov 18

vs Andre Ewell · Jun 19

KOvs Miles Johns · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Martin DayMetricAnderson Dos Santos

3.97

Strikes / min

2.70

3.79

Strikes absorbed / min

5.37

53%

Strike defense

49%

0.72

TDs / 15 min

0.98

65%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18Δ 2.85 — meaningful gap-2.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Martin DayAnderson Dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Martin Day(3 fights)Anderson Dos Santos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -101.6|Blue +101.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -385.0|Blue +385.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Martin DayTargetAnderson Dos Santos

By target zone

75% acc · 33%

Head

38% acc · 45%

100% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 18%

60% acc · 33%

Leg

80% acc · 36%

By position

75% acc · 100%

Distance

53% acc · 73%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

75% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Martin Day rounds

even

Anderson Dos Santos rounds

Round 1Anderson Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:15

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 12

Sig Strikes

11 / 20

75%

Sig Str %

55%

16 / 19

Total Strikes

22 / 31

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 6

100%

TD %

16%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

2:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anderson Dos Santos	11 / 20	22 / 31	1 / 6	1
1	Martin Day	9 / 12	16 / 19	1 / 1	0

Martin Day

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Anderson Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4