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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Martin Buday won · U-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1506

Martin BudayvsUran SatybaldievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · Saturday, April 5, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Martin Buday won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Martin Buday wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Martin Buday wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Martin Buday at -168 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Buday has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Martin Buday has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Martin Buday

Red Corner

Uran Satybaldiev

Blue Corner

-168

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+142

(41%)

1527

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Martin BudayW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 23

SUBvs Josh Parisian · Aug 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Dec 23

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 24

vs Marcus Buchecha · Jul 25

latest

Uran Satybaldiev

oldest →

SUBvs Diyar Nurgozhay · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Martin BudayMetricUran Satybaldiev

4.39

Strikes / min

2.14

4.49

Strikes absorbed / min

3.66

55%

Strike defense

44%

0.15

TDs / 15 min

0.00

93%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap-1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Martin BudayUran Satybaldiev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Martin Buday(8 fights)Uran Satybaldiev(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Martin BudayTargetUran Satybaldiev

By target zone

40% acc · 50%

Head

16% acc · 53%

75% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 17%

84% acc · 45%

Leg

73% acc · 31%

By position

53% acc · 84%

Distance

23% acc · 89%

64% acc · 16%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Martin Buday rounds

even

Uran Satybaldiev rounds

Round 1Martin Buday edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:10

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Martin Buday edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control1:24

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Martin Buday edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control2:32

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 107

Sig Strikes

36 / 141

53.3%

Sig Str %

25%

142 / 211

Total Strikes

45 / 154

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:06

Ctrl Time

0:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Uran Satybaldiev	14 / 51	16 / 54	0 / 0
1	Martin Buday	17 / 39	41 / 69	0 / 0
2	Uran Satybaldiev	12 / 47	13 / 49	0 / 0
2	Martin Buday	28 / 44	44 / 64	0 / 1
3	Uran Satybaldiev	10 / 43	16 / 51	0 / 2
3	Martin Buday	13 / 24	57 / 78	0 / 0

Martin Buday

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8

Uran Satybaldiev

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights2