Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Martin Buday won · S-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1468

Martin BudayvsLukasz BrzeskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · Saturday, August 13, 2022San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Martin Buday won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMartin Buday: Pressure fightervsLukasz Brzeski: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Martin Buday wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Martin Buday wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Martin Buday at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Buday enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Lukasz Brzeski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Martin Buday has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Martin Buday

Red Corner

Lukasz Brzeski

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1527

Elo

1468

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Martin BudayW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Josh Parisian · Aug 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Dec 23

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 24

vs Uran Satybaldiev · Apr 25

vs Marcus Buchecha · Jul 25

latest

Lukasz BrzeskiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Aug 23

vs Valter Walker · Apr 24

KOvs Mick Parkin · Jul 24

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Dec 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Martin BudayMetricLukasz Brzeski

4.39

Strikes / min

4.90

4.49

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

55%

Strike defense

54%

0.15

TDs / 15 min

0.41

93%

Takedown defense

35%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Martin BudayLukasz Brzeski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Martin Buday(8 fights)Lukasz Brzeski(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.4|Blue -58.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Martin BudayTargetLukasz Brzeski

By target zone

30% acc · 76%

Head

27% acc · 42%

50% acc · 5%

Body

74% acc · 43%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

82% acc · 15%

By position

35% acc · 98%

Distance

116

43% acc · 98%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

40% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Martin Buday rounds

even

Lukasz Brzeski rounds

Round 1Lukasz Brzeski edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:06

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Lukasz Brzeski edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Lukasz Brzeski edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 188

Sig Strikes

118 / 273

34.7%

Sig Str %

43%

66 / 188

Total Strikes

124 / 280

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lukasz Brzeski	41 / 104	47 / 111	0 / 0
1	Martin Buday	25 / 63	25 / 63	0 / 0
2	Lukasz Brzeski	43 / 89	43 / 89	0 / 0
2	Martin Buday	19 / 55	19 / 55	0 / 0
3	Lukasz Brzeski	34 / 80	34 / 80	0 / 0
3	Martin Buday	22 / 70	22 / 70	0 / 0

Martin Buday

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8

Lukasz Brzeski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7