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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Martin Buday won · U-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1474

Martin BudayvsJake CollierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · Saturday, April 29, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Martin Buday won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMartin Buday: Pressure fightervsJake Collier: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Martin Buday wins(73.2%)

Actual result: Martin Buday wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Martin Buday at -144 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Buday enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jake Collier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Martin Buday has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Martin Buday

Red Corner

Jake Collier

Blue Corner

-144

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+122

(45%)

1527

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Martin BudayW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Josh Parisian · Aug 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Dec 23

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 24

vs Uran Satybaldiev · Apr 25

vs Marcus Buchecha · Jul 25

latest

Jake CollierL3 streak

oldest →

vs Carlos Felipe · Jun 21

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22

vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22

KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22

vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Martin BudayMetricJake Collier

4.39

Strikes / min

5.80

4.49

Strikes absorbed / min

5.08

55%

Strike defense

50%

0.15

TDs / 15 min

0.71

93%

Takedown defense

67%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Martin BudayJake Collier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Martin Buday(8 fights)Jake Collier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.0|Blue -53.0

Recent Form

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Martin BudayTargetJake Collier

By target zone

46% acc · 67%

Head

36% acc · 67%

89% acc · 24%

Body

96% acc · 23%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

50% acc · 73%

Distance

42% acc · 82%

70% acc · 19%

Clinch

88% acc · 16%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

40% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Martin Buday rounds

even

Jake Collier rounds

Round 1Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:20

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Martin Buday edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:08

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 3Martin Buday edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control1:17

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

98 / 177

Sig Strikes

94 / 207

54.7%

Sig Str %

45%

145 / 229

Total Strikes

107 / 226

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:45

Ctrl Time

4:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Collier	45 / 99	48 / 107	0 / 0
1	Martin Buday	27 / 51	30 / 54	0 / 0
2	Jake Collier	27 / 55	29 / 57	0 / 0
2	Martin Buday	38 / 65	51 / 79	0 / 0
3	Jake Collier	22 / 53	30 / 62	0 / 1
3	Martin Buday	33 / 61	64 / 96	0 / 0

Martin Buday

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8

Jake Collier

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights14