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Lightweight

3 Rounds

MarQuel Mederos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1526

Elo1488

MarQuel MederosvsMark ChoinskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Saturday, June 7, 2025Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

MarQuel Mederos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarQuel Mederos: Pressure fightervsMark Choinski: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: MarQuel Mederos wins(66.7%)

Actual result: MarQuel Mederos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

MarQuel Mederos at -154 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

MarQuel Mederos has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
MarQuel Mederos has 82pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

MarQuel Mederos

Red Corner

Mark Choinski

Blue Corner

-154

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1526

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

MarQuel Mederos

oldest →

vs Landon Quinones · Feb 24

vs Austin Hubbard · Mar 25

DECvs Chris Padilla · Apr 26

latest

Mark ChoinskiNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

MarQuel MederosMetricMark Choinski

5.46

Strikes / min

3.87

4.58

Strikes absorbed / min

7.33

52%

Strike defense

33%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

2.00

82%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.88Δ 4.34 — meaningful gap-3.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

MarQuel MederosMark Choinski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

MarQuel Mederos(4 fights)Mark Choinski(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.3|Blue -37.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

MarQuel MederosTargetMark Choinski

By target zone

58% acc · 57%

Head

47% acc · 83%

89% acc · 15%

Body

78% acc · 12%

79% acc · 28%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

64% acc · 85%

Distance

51% acc · 93%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

33% acc · 3%

67% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

MarQuel Mederos rounds

even

Mark Choinski rounds

Round 1MarQuel Mederos edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:02

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:23Control

Round 2MarQuel Mederos edged it

Sig. strikes52

Takedowns0

Control0:16

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 3MarQuel Mederos edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:20

Knockdowns1

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:35Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

110 / 165

Sig Strikes

58 / 114

67.3%

Sig Str %

49.7%

115 / 170

Total Strikes

64 / 120

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 11

—

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

0:38

Ctrl Time

4:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mark Choinski	14 / 36	15 / 37	0 / 3
1	MarQuel Mederos	31 / 46	31 / 46	0 / 0
2	Mark Choinski	26 / 44	26 / 44	1 / 2
2	MarQuel Mederos	52 / 82	54 / 84	0 / 0
3	Mark Choinski	18 / 34	23 / 39	1 / 6
3	MarQuel Mederos	27 / 37	30 / 40	0 / 0

MarQuel Mederos

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3

Mark Choinski

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights1