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Lightweight

3 Rounds

MarQuel Mederos won · S-DEC R3

Elo1526

Elo1478

MarQuel MederosvsAustin HubbardUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Saturday, March 29, 2025Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

MarQuel Mederos won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarQuel Mederos: Pressure fightervsAustin Hubbard: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: MarQuel Mederos wins(61.9%)

Actual result: MarQuel Mederos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

MarQuel Mederos at -158 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Tale of the Tape

MarQuel Mederos

Red Corner

Austin Hubbard

Blue Corner

-158

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+134

(43%)

1526

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

MarQuel Mederos

oldest →

vs Landon Quinones · Feb 24

vs Mark Choinski · Jun 25

DECvs Chris Padilla · Apr 26

latest

Austin HubbardL2 streak

oldest →

vs Vinc Pichel · Aug 21

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · Aug 23

vs Michal Figlak · Apr 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 24

vs Rongzhu · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

MarQuel MederosMetricAustin Hubbard

5.46

Strikes / min

3.97

4.58

Strikes absorbed / min

4.10

52%

Strike defense

55%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

1.63

82%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.88Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

MarQuel MederosAustin Hubbard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

MarQuel Mederos(4 fights)Austin Hubbard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.1|Blue -48.1

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +245.0|Blue -245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

MarQuel MederosTargetAustin Hubbard

By target zone

51% acc · 48%

Head

31% acc · 62%

100% acc · 16%

Body

67% acc · 23%

80% acc · 36%

Leg

80% acc · 15%

By position

58% acc · 73%

Distance

37% acc · 85%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

89% acc · 18%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

MarQuel Mederos rounds

even

Austin Hubbard rounds

Round 1MarQuel Mederos edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 2Austin Hubbard edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:05

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:12Control

Round 3MarQuel Mederos edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:28

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 68

Sig Strikes

26 / 65

62.3%

Sig Str %

37%

57 / 81

Total Strikes

62 / 121

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 9

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

1:33

Ctrl Time

7:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Austin Hubbard	17 / 39	19 / 41	0 / 3	0
1	MarQuel Mederos	23 / 35	23 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Austin Hubbard	3 / 9	18 / 35	1 / 2	1
2	MarQuel Mederos	6 / 11	6 / 11	0 / 1	0
3	Austin Hubbard	6 / 17	25 / 45	1 / 4	0
3	MarQuel Mederos	15 / 22	28 / 35	0 / 0	0

MarQuel Mederos

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3

Austin Hubbard

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12