Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Ketlen Souza won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1523

Marnic MannvsKetlen SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · Saturday, April 27, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ketlen Souza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ketlen Souza wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Ketlen Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ketlen Souza at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ketlen Souza has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ketlen Souza has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Marnic Mann (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Marnic Mann

Red Corner

Ketlen Souza

Blue Corner

+280

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-355

(78%)

1491

Elo

1523

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'0"

Height

5'3"

162.56 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marnic Mann

oldest →

vs Josefine Knutsson · Sep 23

latest

Ketlen SouzaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Yazmin Jauregui · Sep 24

vs Angela Hill · Feb 25

vs Piera Rodriguez · Aug 25

vs Bruna Brasil · Feb 26

KOvs Ariane Carnelossi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marnic MannMetricKetlen Souza

1.47

Strikes / min

4.01

5.08

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

31%

Strike defense

52%

1.90

TDs / 15 min

0.46

25%

Takedown defense

53%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.61Δ 3.76 — meaningful gap+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marnic MannKetlen Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marnic Mann(2 fights)Ketlen Souza(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.9|Blue +31.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marnic MannTargetKetlen Souza

By target zone

21% acc · 26%

Head

55% acc · 48%

50% acc · 16%

Body

85% acc · 35%

64% acc · 58%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

38% acc · 90%

Distance

68% acc · 89%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

78% acc · 9%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marnic Mann rounds

even

Ketlen Souza rounds

Round 1Ketlen Souza edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:23

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 2Ketlen Souza edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 3Ketlen Souza edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:31

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 77

Sig Strikes

80 / 116

42.3%

Sig Str %

69%

111 / 159

Total Strikes

93 / 132

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 2

33.3%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:54

Ctrl Time

3:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ketlen Souza	23 / 31	29 / 38	1 / 2	0
1	Marnic Mann	11 / 21	18 / 28	1 / 2	0
2	Ketlen Souza	27 / 41	31 / 47	0 / 0	0
2	Marnic Mann	11 / 36	49 / 74	0 / 1	0
3	Ketlen Souza	30 / 44	33 / 47	0 / 0	0
3	Marnic Mann	9 / 20	44 / 57	1 / 2	1

Marnic Mann

StanceSouthpaw

Height60.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights2

Ketlen Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights7