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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marlon Vera won · SUB R2

Elo1475

Elo1355

Marlon VeravsRoman SalazarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 8, 2015Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Vera won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:15

Model Prediction: Marlon Vera wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Marlon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marlon Vera at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marlon Vera has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Vera

Red Corner

Roman Salazar

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1475

Elo

1355

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Roman Salazar

oldest →

SUBvs Mitch Gagnon · Oct 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon VeraMetricRoman Salazar

4.18

Strikes / min

1.95

5.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

50%

Strike defense

57%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

1.77

71%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16evenly matched on net striking-0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon VeraRoman Salazar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Vera(10 fights)Roman Salazar(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +119.4|Blue -119.4

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon VeraTargetRoman Salazar

By target zone

45% acc · 68%

Head

44% acc · 79%

78% acc · 28%

Body

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

67% acc · 14%

By position

41% acc · 44%

Distance

31% acc · 36%

67% acc · 8%

Clinch

60% acc · 21%

67% acc · 48%

Ground

75% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Vera rounds

even

Roman Salazar rounds

Round 1Roman Salazar edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:06

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:04Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:02Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 48

Sig Strikes

14 / 29

54%

Sig Str %

45%

26 / 49

Total Strikes

67 / 85

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 7

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

5:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Roman Salazar	12 / 24	42 / 57	0 / 5	0
1	Marlon Vera	15 / 32	16 / 33	0 / 0	0
2	Roman Salazar	2 / 5	25 / 28	1 / 2	0
2	Marlon Vera	10 / 16	10 / 16	0 / 0	2

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Roman Salazar

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2