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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marlon Vera won · U-DEC R3

Elo1475

Elo1488

Marlon VeravsPedro MunhozUFC Prediction Result

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Saturday, August 19, 2023Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Vera won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarlon Vera: Pressure fightervsPedro Munhoz: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Marlon Vera wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Marlon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marlon Vera at -166 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).
Marlon Vera has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Vera

Red Corner

Pedro Munhoz

Blue Corner

-166

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1475

Elo

1488

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon VeraL5 streak

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Mar 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Pedro MunhozL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Aug 21

vs Dominick Cruz · Dec 21

vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Mar 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon VeraMetricPedro Munhoz

4.18

Strikes / min

5.38

5.34

Strikes absorbed / min

6.29

50%

Strike defense

55%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

0.48

71%

Takedown defense

82%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16evenly matched on net striking-0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon VeraPedro Munhoz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Vera(10 fights)Pedro Munhoz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.9|Blue +13.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon VeraTargetPedro Munhoz

By target zone

109

51% acc · 77%

Head

30% acc · 47%

64% acc · 6%

Body

71% acc · 18%

92% acc · 16%

Leg

98% acc · 35%

By position

138

56% acc · 98%

Distance

111

45% acc · 98%

75% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Vera rounds

even

Pedro Munhoz rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:00

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

141 / 251

Sig Strikes

113 / 246

56.3%

Sig Str %

45.7%

141 / 251

Total Strikes

113 / 246

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Pedro Munhoz	38 / 71	38 / 71	0 / 1
1	Marlon Vera	39 / 66	39 / 66	0 / 1
2	Pedro Munhoz	45 / 91	45 / 91	0 / 0
2	Marlon Vera	49 / 84	49 / 84	0 / 0
3	Pedro Munhoz	30 / 84	30 / 84	0 / 0
3	Marlon Vera	53 / 101	53 / 101	0 / 0

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Pedro Munhoz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights20