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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marlon Vera won · SUB R2

Elo1475

Elo1376

Marlon VeravsNohelin HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Saturday, July 6, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Vera won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:25

Model Prediction: Marlon Vera wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Marlon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marlon Vera at -470 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marlon Vera has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Vera

Red Corner

Nohelin Hernandez

Blue Corner

-470

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+375

(21%)

1475

Elo

1376

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Nohelin Hernandez

oldest →

SUBvs Jack Shore · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon VeraMetricNohelin Hernandez

4.18

Strikes / min

1.32

5.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

50%

Strike defense

52%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

0.71

71%

Takedown defense

37%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16evenly matched on net striking-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon VeraNohelin Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Vera(10 fights)Nohelin Hernandez(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +98.1|Blue -98.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon VeraTargetNohelin Hernandez

By target zone

42% acc · 50%

Head

38% acc · 59%

13% acc · 10%

Body

80% acc · 18%

57% acc · 40%

Leg

71% acc · 23%

By position

30% acc · 70%

Distance

41% acc · 32%

Clinch

67% acc · 9%

75% acc · 30%

Ground

50% acc · 59%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Vera rounds

even

Nohelin Hernandez rounds

Round 1Nohelin Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control2:15

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:02Control

Round 2Nohelin Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:07

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:53Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 27

Sig Strikes

22 / 46

31%

Sig Str %

47.5%

26 / 54

Total Strikes

28 / 53

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:22

Ctrl Time

2:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nohelin Hernandez	9 / 23	11 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Marlon Vera	1 / 10	14 / 32	1 / 1	0
2	Nohelin Hernandez	13 / 23	17 / 27	1 / 2	0
2	Marlon Vera	9 / 17	12 / 22	0 / 0	1

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Nohelin Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2