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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Marlon Vera won · Decision R3
Elo1475
Marlon Vera
Elo1359

Marlon VeravsNing GuangyouUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · Saturday, November 26, 2016Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Marlon Vera won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ning Guangyou wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Marlon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ning Guangyou at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (54.1%).
  • Marlon Vera has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Vera
Red Corner
VS
Ning Guangyou
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
1475
Elo
1359
33
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'4"
177.8 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon VeraL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23
L
vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25
L
vs David Martinez · Feb 26
latest
Ning Guangyou
oldest →
W
DECvs Jianping Yang · Aug 14
W
KOvs Royston Wee · May 15
L
DECvs Marco Beltran · Nov 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon VeraMetricNing Guangyou
4.18
Strikes / min
—
5.34
Strikes absorbed / min
—
50%
Strike defense
—
0.47
TDs / 15 min
—
71%
Takedown defense
—
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1516Strikes24.3 vs 33.3Takedowns0.7 vs 1.3Sub Atts1.33 vs 0.33Form-0.4 vs -0.1
Marlon VeraNing Guangyou

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Marlon Vera(10 fights)Ning Guangyou(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +116.0|Blue -116.0
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -91.0|Blue +91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26

Ning Guangyou

StanceSouthpaw
Height64.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights3