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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marlon Vera won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1475

Elo1387

Marlon VeravsFrankie SaenzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Saturday, March 23, 2019Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Vera won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:25

Style matchupMarlon Vera: Pressure fightervsFrankie Saenz: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Frankie Saenz wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Marlon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Saenz at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).
Marlon Vera has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Vera

Red Corner

Frankie Saenz

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1475

Elo

1387

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Frankie Saenz

oldest →

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jul 16

vs Augusto Mendes · Jan 17

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 17

vs Henry Briones · May 18

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon VeraMetricFrankie Saenz

4.18

Strikes / min

3.94

5.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

50%

Strike defense

52%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

1.74

71%

Takedown defense

61%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon VeraFrankie Saenz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Vera(10 fights)Frankie Saenz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +87.5|Blue -87.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -182.0|Blue +182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon VeraTargetFrankie Saenz

By target zone

78% acc · 58%

Head

20% acc · 25%

0% acc

Body

33% acc · 25%

83% acc · 42%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

64% acc · 58%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Vera rounds

even

Frankie Saenz rounds

Round 1Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 16

Sig Strikes

4 / 10

75%

Sig Str %

40%

13 / 17

Total Strikes

4 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Frankie Saenz	4 / 10	4 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Marlon Vera	12 / 16	13 / 17	0 / 0	0

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Frankie Saenz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10