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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Marlon Vera won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1475

Elo1495

Marlon VeravsDominick CruzUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · Saturday, August 13, 2022San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Vera won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 2:17

Style matchupMarlon Vera: Pressure fightervsDominick Cruz: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Dominick Cruz wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Marlon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominick Cruz at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Dominick Cruz has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Vera

Red Corner

Dominick Cruz

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1475

Elo

1495

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Dominick CruzW2 streak

oldest →

vs Urijah Faber · Jun 16

vs Cody Garbrandt · Dec 16

KOvs Henry Cejudo · May 20

vs Casey Kenney · Mar 21

vs Pedro Munhoz · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon VeraMetricDominick Cruz

4.18

Strikes / min

3.91

5.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

50%

Strike defense

70%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

2.82

71%

Takedown defense

83%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16Δ 2.46 — meaningful gap+1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon VeraDominick Cruz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Vera(10 fights)Dominick Cruz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.9|Blue +20.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon VeraTargetDominick Cruz

By target zone

29% acc · 57%

Head

28% acc · 59%

62% acc · 21%

Body

50% acc · 17%

93% acc · 21%

Leg

92% acc · 24%

By position

37% acc · 89%

Distance

36% acc · 97%

83% acc · 8%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Vera rounds

even

Dominick Cruz rounds

Round 1Dominick Cruz edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:49Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Dominick Cruz edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dominick Cruz edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:02

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 4Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns2

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 156

Sig Strikes

92 / 249

39.8%

Sig Str %

36.5%

63 / 160

Total Strikes

100 / 259

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 7

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dominick Cruz	21 / 61	29 / 71	2 / 2
1	Marlon Vera	9 / 33	11 / 37	0 / 0
2	Marlon Vera	19 / 52	19 / 52	0 / 0
2	Dominick Cruz	32 / 78	32 / 78	0 / 1
3	Dominick Cruz	28 / 80	28 / 80	0 / 3
3	Marlon Vera	21 / 49	21 / 49	0 / 0
4	Dominick Cruz	11 / 30	11 / 30	0 / 1
4	Marlon Vera	12 / 22	12 / 22	0 / 0

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Dominick Cruz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10