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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

David Martinez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1475

Elo1545

Marlon VeravsDavid MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Saturday, February 28, 2026Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

David Martinez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarlon Vera: Pressure fightervsDavid Martinez: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: David Martinez wins(81.0%)

Actual result: David Martinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Martinez at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
David Martinez has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
David Martinez has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Vera

Red Corner

David Martinez

Blue Corner

+265

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-330

(77%)

1475

Elo

1545

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'5"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon VeraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Mar 23

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

latest

David MartinezW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Saimon Oliveira · Mar 25

vs Rob Font · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon VeraMetricDavid Martinez

4.18

Strikes / min

4.82

5.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

50%

Strike defense

69%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

0.60

71%

Takedown defense

100%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16Δ 3.08 — meaningful gap+1.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon VeraDavid Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Vera(10 fights)David Martinez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -70.4|Blue +70.4

Recent Form

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon VeraTargetDavid Martinez

By target zone

23% acc · 62%

Head

38% acc · 68%

52% acc · 26%

Body

80% acc · 23%

45% acc · 12%

Leg

78% acc · 10%

By position

29% acc · 98%

Distance

45% acc · 94%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

60% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Vera rounds

even

David Martinez rounds

Round 1David Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 2David Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 3David Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:04

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 145

Sig Strikes

71 / 155

26.7%

Sig Str %

45.7%

52 / 156

Total Strikes

86 / 173

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

1:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	David Martinez	19 / 41	26 / 51	1 / 1
1	Marlon Vera	5 / 39	13 / 48	0 / 0
2	David Martinez	21 / 43	29 / 51	1 / 2
2	Marlon Vera	13 / 40	14 / 41	0 / 0
3	David Martinez	31 / 71	31 / 71	0 / 1
3	Marlon Vera	24 / 66	25 / 67	0 / 0

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

David Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3