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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Cory Sandhagen won · S-DEC R5
Elo1475
Marlon Vera
Elo1484
Cory Sandhagen editorial illustration

Marlon VeravsCory SandhagenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, March 25, 2023San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Cory Sandhagen won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMarlon Vera: Pressure fightervsCory Sandhagen: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Cory Sandhagen wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Cory Sandhagen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cory Sandhagen at -136 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Marlon Vera has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Vera
Red Corner
VS
Cory Sandhagen
Blue Corner
+116
(46%)
Vegas Odds
-136
(58%)
1475
Elo
1484
33
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Switch
5'8"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon VeraL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23
L
vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25
L
vs David Martinez · Feb 26
latest
Cory SandhagenL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rob Font · Aug 23
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Aug 24
W
KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 25
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Oct 25
L
DECvs Mario Bautista · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon VeraMetricCory Sandhagen
4.18
Strikes / min
4.86
5.34
Strikes absorbed / min
3.47
50%
Strike defense
56%
0.47
TDs / 15 min
1.15
71%
Takedown defense
56%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.16Δ 2.55 — meaningful gap+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1619 vs 1588Strikes4.3 vs 5.0Takedowns0.5 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.30Form0.9 vs 0.4
Marlon VeraCory Sandhagen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601478149515131530← oldermost recent →
Marlon Vera(10 fights)Cory Sandhagen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -9.9|Blue +9.9
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon VeraTargetCory Sandhagen

By target zone

28
27% acc · 48%
Head
84
37% acc · 66%
13
45% acc · 22%
Body
16
70% acc · 13%
17
71% acc · 29%
Leg
28
90% acc · 22%

By position

53
35% acc · 91%
Distance
107
44% acc · 84%
5
100% acc · 9%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 2%
0
0% acc
Ground
19
53% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Marlon Vera rounds
0
even
5
Cory Sandhagen rounds
Round 1Cory Sandhagen edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:30Control
Round 2Cory Sandhagen edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:50Control
Round 3Cory Sandhagen edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 4Cory Sandhagen edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 5Cory Sandhagen edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:09
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:37Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
58 / 158
Sig Strikes
128 / 280
37%
Sig Str %
47%
73 / 177
Total Strikes
187 / 378
0 / 1
TDs
3 / 12
0%
TD %
35%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:09
Ctrl Time
7:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cory Sandhagen32 / 6947 / 991 / 20
1Marlon Vera5 / 1312 / 220 / 00
2Cory Sandhagen18 / 2955 / 841 / 10
2Marlon Vera6 / 159 / 180 / 11
3Cory Sandhagen32 / 6732 / 670 / 20
3Marlon Vera20 / 5620 / 560 / 00
4Cory Sandhagen24 / 6724 / 670 / 30
4Marlon Vera13 / 3813 / 380 / 00
5Marlon Vera14 / 3619 / 430 / 00
5Cory Sandhagen22 / 4829 / 611 / 40

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26

Cory Sandhagen

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17