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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marlon Vera won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1475

Elo1414

Marlon VeravsAndre EwellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Vera won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:17

Style matchupMarlon Vera: Pressure fightervsAndre Ewell: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Marlon Vera wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Marlon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marlon Vera at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andre Ewell enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (54.1%).
Andre Ewell has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Vera

Red Corner

Andre Ewell

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1475

Elo

1414

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Andre EwellL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jonathan Martinez · Feb 20

vs Irwin Rivera · Sep 20

vs Chris Gutierrez · Feb 21

KOvs Julio Arce · Jul 21

vs Charles Jourdain · Dec 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon VeraMetricAndre Ewell

4.18

Strikes / min

4.28

5.34

Strikes absorbed / min

4.87

50%

Strike defense

51%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

0.36

71%

Takedown defense

72%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16evenly matched on net striking-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon VeraAndre Ewell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Vera(10 fights)Andre Ewell(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.7|Blue -60.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon VeraTargetAndre Ewell

By target zone

49% acc · 51%

Head

34% acc · 76%

73% acc · 24%

Body

61% acc · 22%

83% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

54% acc · 64%

Distance

40% acc · 98%

71% acc · 19%

Clinch

17% acc · 2%

82% acc · 18%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Vera rounds

even

Andre Ewell rounds

Round 1Andre Ewell edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:33Control

Round 2Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:34

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:38

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 133

Sig Strikes

50 / 131

56%

Sig Str %

37.3%

87 / 140

Total Strikes

67 / 148

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:12

Ctrl Time

2:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andre Ewell	14 / 37	31 / 54	0 / 0	0
1	Marlon Vera	9 / 21	14 / 26	0 / 1	1
2	Andre Ewell	19 / 48	19 / 48	0 / 1	0
2	Marlon Vera	28 / 56	30 / 58	0 / 0	0
3	Andre Ewell	17 / 46	17 / 46	0 / 0	0
3	Marlon Vera	43 / 56	43 / 56	0 / 0	1

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Andre Ewell

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9