← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Aiemann Zahabi won · S-DEC R3

Elo1475

Elo1522

Marlon VeravsAiemann ZahabiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · Saturday, October 18, 2025Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Aiemann Zahabi won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarlon Vera: Pressure fightervsAiemann Zahabi: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Aiemann Zahabi wins(71.6%)

Actual result: Aiemann Zahabi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aiemann Zahabi at -132 American odds

+$76 profit

$176 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Aiemann Zahabi has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Vera

Red Corner

Aiemann Zahabi

Blue Corner

+112

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-132

(57%)

1475

Elo

1522

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon VeraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cory Sandhagen · Mar 23

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Aiemann Zahabi

oldest →

KOvs Aoriqileng · Jun 23

vs Javid Basharat · Mar 24

vs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 24

vs Jose Aldo · May 25

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon VeraMetricAiemann Zahabi

4.18

Strikes / min

4.54

5.34

Strikes absorbed / min

4.08

50%

Strike defense

69%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

0.12

71%

Takedown defense

83%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon VeraAiemann Zahabi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Vera(10 fights)Aiemann Zahabi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +280.0|Blue -280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon VeraTargetAiemann Zahabi

By target zone

28% acc · 54%

Head

44% acc · 58%

54% acc · 25%

Body

71% acc · 25%

63% acc · 21%

Leg

82% acc · 17%

By position

37% acc · 98%

Distance

53% acc · 98%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

67% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Vera rounds

even

Aiemann Zahabi rounds

Round 1Aiemann Zahabi edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Aiemann Zahabi edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 152

Sig Strikes

81 / 152

35.7%

Sig Str %

53.3%

56 / 153

Total Strikes

81 / 152

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aiemann Zahabi	20 / 37	20 / 37	0 / 0
1	Marlon Vera	11 / 40	11 / 40	0 / 0
2	Aiemann Zahabi	24 / 44	24 / 44	0 / 0
2	Marlon Vera	21 / 50	21 / 51	0 / 0
3	Aiemann Zahabi	37 / 71	37 / 71	0 / 0
3	Marlon Vera	24 / 62	24 / 62	0 / 0

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Aiemann Zahabi

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10