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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Song Yadong won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1419
Marlon Moraes
Elo1518
Song Yadong

Marlon MoraesvsSong YadongUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 12, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Song Yadong won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:06

Model Prediction: Song Yadong wins(76.2%)

Actual result: Song Yadong wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marlon Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Song Yadong has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Moraes
Red Corner
VS
Song Yadong
Blue Corner
+230
(30%)
Vegas Odds
—
1419
Elo
1518
38
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon MoraesL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jun 19
W
vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20
L
KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20
L
KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21
latest
Song Yadong
oldest →
W
vs Chris Gutierrez · Dec 23
L
vs Petr Yan · Mar 24
W
vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 25
L
vs Sean O'Malley · Jan 26
W
SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon MoraesMetricSong Yadong
3.37
Strikes / min
4.42
4.53
Strikes absorbed / min
3.94
54%
Strike defense
55%
0.87
TDs / 15 min
0.78
46%
Takedown defense
73%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.16Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap+0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1523 vs 1590Strikes3.4 vs 4.5Takedowns0.9 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.20Form-0.8 vs 0.6
Marlon MoraesSong Yadong

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Marlon Moraes(10 fights)Song Yadong(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -98.3|Blue +98.3
Recent Form
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon MoraesTargetSong Yadong

By target zone

9
36% acc · 100%
Head
10
34% acc · 71%
0
Body
3
60% acc · 21%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 7%

By position

9
36% acc · 100%
Distance
14
40% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Marlon Moraes rounds
0
even
1
Song Yadong rounds
Round 1Song Yadong edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
9 / 25
Sig Strikes
14 / 35
36%
Sig Str %
40%
9 / 25
Total Strikes
14 / 35
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Song Yadong14 / 3514 / 350 / 00
1Marlon Moraes9 / 259 / 250 / 00

Marlon Moraes

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights11

Song Yadong

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights17