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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Rob Font won · KO/TKO

Elo1419

Elo1490

Marlon MoraesvsRob FontUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Saturday, December 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rob Font won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Marlon Moraes wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Rob Font wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marlon Moraes at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Rob Font is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Marlon Moraes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Rob Font has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Moraes

Red Corner

Rob Font

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1419

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon MoraesL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jun 19

vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20

KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22

latest

Rob FontL2 streak

oldest →

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Dec 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Oct 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Feb 25

vs David Martinez · Sep 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon MoraesMetricRob Font

3.37

Strikes / min

5.11

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

54%

Strike defense

57%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

0.70

46%

Takedown defense

37%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16Δ 2.74 — meaningful gap+1.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon MoraesRob Font

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Moraes(10 fights)Rob Font(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -70.7|Blue +70.7

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -308.0|Blue +308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon MoraesTargetRob Font

By target zone

80% acc · 89%

Head

79% acc · 90%

50% acc · 11%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

89% acc · 89%

Distance

72% acc · 43%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

33% acc · 11%

Ground

89% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Moraes rounds

even

Rob Font rounds

Round 1Rob Font edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:31

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 12

Sig Strikes

30 / 37

75%

Sig Str %

81%

12 / 16

Total Strikes

33 / 41

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:31

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rob Font	30 / 37	33 / 41	0 / 0	0
1	Marlon Moraes	9 / 12	12 / 16	2 / 3	0

Marlon Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11

Rob Font

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights21