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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Merab Dvalishvili won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1419

Elo1542

Marlon MoraesvsMerab DvalishviliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Saturday, September 25, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:25

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(89.1%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Merab Dvalishvili has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Moraes

Red Corner

Merab Dvalishvili

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-310

(76%)

1419

Elo

1542

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon MoraesL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jun 19

vs Jose Aldo · Dec 19

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20

KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20

KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22

latest

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon MoraesMetricMerab Dvalishvili

3.37

Strikes / min

4.42

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

54%

Strike defense

54%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

5.97

46%

Takedown defense

76%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16Δ 2.78 — meaningful gap+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon MoraesMerab Dvalishvili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Moraes(10 fights)Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -123.1|Blue +123.1

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon MoraesTargetMerab Dvalishvili

By target zone

64% acc · 79%

Head

62% acc · 91%

Body

86% acc · 9%

75% acc · 21%

Leg

0% acc

By position

60% acc · 72%

Distance

34% acc · 17%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 24%

Ground

77% acc · 83%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Moraes rounds

even

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

31Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:21Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:20

38Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 44

Sig Strikes

69 / 109

65%

Sig Str %

64%

34 / 49

Total Strikes

246 / 307

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 4

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

6:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Merab Dvalishvili	31 / 59	104 / 141	2 / 2
1	Marlon Moraes	29 / 44	34 / 49	0 / 0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	38 / 50	142 / 166	2 / 2
2	Marlon Moraes	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0

Marlon Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17