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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marlon Moraes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1419

Elo1493

Marlon MoraesvsJose AldoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Saturday, December 14, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Moraes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Marlon Moraes wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Marlon Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marlon Moraes at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Moraes enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jose Aldo has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marlon Moraes

Red Corner

Jose Aldo

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1419

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marlon MoraesL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jun 19

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20

KOvs Rob Font · Dec 20

KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21

KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22

latest

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marlon MoraesMetricJose Aldo

3.37

Strikes / min

3.65

4.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.81

54%

Strike defense

60%

0.87

TDs / 15 min

0.47

46%

Takedown defense

92%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.16evenly matched on net striking-0.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marlon MoraesJose Aldo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marlon Moraes(10 fights)Jose Aldo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -73.9|Blue +73.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marlon MoraesTargetJose Aldo

By target zone

39% acc · 81%

Head

36% acc · 67%

78% acc · 12%

Body

47% acc · 28%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

75% acc · 5%

By position

43% acc · 98%

Distance

39% acc · 98%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marlon Moraes rounds

even

Jose Aldo rounds

Round 1Marlon Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:20

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marlon Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 137

Sig Strikes

58 / 147

42.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

59 / 137

Total Strikes

63 / 152

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jose Aldo	15 / 40	20 / 45	0 / 0
1	Marlon Moraes	18 / 42	18 / 42	1 / 1
2	Jose Aldo	28 / 56	28 / 56	0 / 0
2	Marlon Moraes	21 / 54	21 / 54	0 / 0
3	Jose Aldo	15 / 51	15 / 51	0 / 0
3	Marlon Moraes	20 / 41	20 / 41	0 / 1

Marlon Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights11

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23